Summer of Stats: xA

Yesterday, I talked about Expected Goals, or xG for short. Today, the topic is the long-lost brother of xG, it’s Expected Assists (xA for short). HerFootballHub defines xA as “ the quality of a pass leading up to a scoring chance. It calculates the probability of that pass resulting in a goal, considering various factors such as pass type, pass distance, assist location, and the nature of the attacking move. Just like expected goals, xA is measured on a scale from zero to one, where zero signifies a pass that is unlikely to result in a goal and one represents an assist that should lead to a goal almost every time.” Djordje Mihailovic currently leads all of MLS in xA with 8.6, yet he’s only acquired 2 assists thus far.

St. Louis City SC’s xA leaders are as follows: Attacking Midfielder Marcel Hartel with 4.7 xA, a large gap separates him and Celio Pompeu, who sits at #2 with 1.8, and finally, in third on the squad is veteran Midfielder Alfredo Morales. 

The player with the lowest xA who has played more than 1,000 thus far is Centerback Joshua Yaro, who only has 0.1 xA as of 7/13/25.

There isn’t a known origin of the Statistic, but Opta.com is credited with making it mainstream as a connection to xG.