Summer of Stats: xG

Expected Goals (xG) is a statistic measuring the likelihood of a shot resulting in a goal, ranging from 0.0 to 1.00. Per Mark Carey of the New York Times, “The expected goals metric is generally calculated by determining the likelihood of a shot being scored based on various factors, taken from the moment before the player shoots. These factors may vary depending on the statistical model, but include the distance to the goal, angle, shot type, and other contextual factors. Each shot is then given a probabilistic value, representing how many times that shot is likely to be scored based on similar shots. For example, a shot with a value of .3 goals is likely to be scored about 3 out of every 10 times.” 

Given St. Louis’s Offensive woes this season, it makes sense to take a look at their xG numbers as a large-scale example. 

Through 21 games in the current 2025 Major League Soccer (MLS) Season, St. Louis City SC sits towards the bottom of the table, 27th out of 30 to be exact, as of 7/12/25. Offensive production has been few and far between. Let's take a look at The Lou’s previously mentioned xG. The individual players contributing the most include striker João Klauss, with an xG of 6.2, Striker Simon Becher, who is not far behind with an xG of 5.9, and finally, right behind Simon is City’s highest-paid player, Marcel Hartel, with 3.9. On the other hand, the player with the lowest xG of people to play more than 1,000 minutes so far is Centerback Timo Baumgartl with 0.9. 

For reference, Sam Surridge leads all of MLS in xG with a whopping 14.8 Expected Goals. 

xG was coined as a stat in a 1993 paper written by Vic Barnett and Sarah Hilditch, in which the main topic was about the effects of Artificial Pitch Surfaces on home team performances in association football in England. Other contributors to the increasing usage of xG include Jake Ensum, Richard Pollard, and Samuel Taylor in their 2004 data collection of the 2002 World Cup. Some other contributors are Howard Hamilton in the year I was born, 2009, and Sander Itjsma in 2011, respectively.